Low Inventory Boosting Prices, Says Housing Pulse

By: Esther Cho

Home price purchases were mixed month-over-month in May, with non-distressed prices up and short sales down, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse tracking survey.

From April to May, transactions reported by HousingPulse survey respondents revealed the average price for non-distressed properties rose 1.7 percent, while the average price for short sales fell 0.7 percent. For damaged REOs, the average price went up 1.8 percent and for move-in ready REOs, the average price dropped 1.5 percent.

The stabilization of home prices seen in some instances is due to a shortage of inventory, HousingPulse reported. These shortages are led by underwater homeowners who are holding onto their homes until home prices move up. 

Also, for distressed properties, there’s a shortage of inventory due to slower processing of foreclosures by mortgage servicers, according to HousingPulse.

Move-in ready REO properties are in demand and sat on the market for an average of 10.6 weeks in May, the lowest of any property category.
Using a three-month moving average, the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index (DPI) revealed that the share of distressed properties in the housing market in May was 46.1 percent. This marks the 27th consecutive month in which the DPI hovered above 40 percent.
Anecdotal evidence also suggests that the shortage is especially prevalent in California. 

One realtor in the state said that inventory in Orange County was “super low” and the months’ supply of unsold homes is down to just 45 days.
Another California agent said that inventory in the Santa Clarita Valley, which is 35 miles north of Los Angeles, is very low, and reported less than 500 listings, which is well below the 1,500-1,800 properties the agent stated is the average. 

The Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey includes approximately 2,500 real estate agents nationwide each month.

 

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Real Estate Outlook: New Home Sales Rise 3.3 Percent

by Carla Hill

New home sales rose during the month of April. This 3.3 percent rise reported by HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau is consistent with predictions of sustained growth through the rest of the year. 

On a regional basis, new-home sales rose 7.7 percent in the Northeast, 28.2 percent in the Midwest and 27.5 percent in the West in April. The South was the only region to post a decline for the month, of 10.6 percent.

"The increase in April sales activity is in line with other important housing measures that have shown continued, gradual improvement from the first quarter as more consumers look to take advantage of today's low interest rates and affordable home prices," noted National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. "In markets where demand is rising, we could be seeing a faster pace of recovery if not for persistently tight lending conditions that are slowing both the building and buying of new homes."

Inventory for new homes is now at a 5.1-month supply -- slim by historic standards. 

A rise in sales is always good news in this post-recession economy. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is committed to showing current and future homeowners the opportunities which homeownership brings. That is why the month of June is National Homeownership Month. 

"Anyone thinking of buying a home shouldn't wait any longer," added NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenber. "Housing markets around the country are improving, home prices have stabilized,  there is a great selection of available homes for sale, and interest rates are at near historic low levels."

You can read more information about homeownership, threats to the American Dream, current housing proposals, and mortgage information at ProtectHomeownership.com -- run by the NAHB. 

"Homeownership remains a core value to American families," said Rutenberg. "Even more important than the financial advantages of homeownership, is that first and foremost, a home is where your family can relax, spend quality time together and build lifelong memories."

A recent NAHB study (January 2012) found that despite a still struggling economy, the dream of homeownership is alive. The study found that 96 percent of homeowners are happy they own. That is a big statement considering the number of underwater owners. Nearly seven out of 10 American adults who are not currently home owners said it was a goal of theirs to buy a home. 

Will we continue to see improving sales and housing growth? Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist, said new jobs are the key. "Ongoing job creation, which is at a higher level this year, is fueling an underlying demand for commercial real estate space, assisted by a steady increase in consumer spending," he said. "The pattern shows gradually declining commercial vacancy rates, with consequential but generally modest rent growth." 

Published: June 18, 2012

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.

Zillow: Home Values Mixed, Rent Continues to Climb

Home values rose in May month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month of increases, but fell on a yearly basis, according to Zillow’s Real Estate Market Reports.

Prices moved upwards by 0.5 percent from the month before in April to $148,100, but home values continued their downward fall on a yearly basis, dropping 0.9 percent from May 2011, according to the Zillow’s Home Value Index. 

The upside to the yearly decline is it’s the smallest year-over-year drop since October 2007.

“It is promising to see consecutive months of national home value increases, especially during a period in which we’d expected more downward pressure due to foreclosures,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. 

Humphries noted there’s a tug-of-war situation with inventory, where buyers want to buy but sellers can’t or don’t want to sell due to negative equity. This, he said, will make for a more volatile housing recovery than what was anticipated. 

Notably, Zillow’s measure showed home prices spiked in the Phoenix metro, increasing by 9 percent year-over-year and by 1.9 percent month-over-month in May. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro, home values rose 5.2 percent year-over-year and 2.2 percent month-over-month. Denver and Pittsburgh also saw yearly increase at 2.8 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. 

Chicago, on the other hand, saw its prices plummet by 6.8 percent over a year’s period, with Atlanta following behind closely at 6.3 percent.
Rent prices also hiked up month-over-month in May by 1.8 percent and year-over-year by 4.6 percent, according to the Zillow Rent Index. The increase was seen across the board with rents up over a one-month period in 77 percent of the 344 markets covered by Zillow.

Metro areas that saw the largest yearly increase in rent were Philadelphia(13.1 percent), Baltimore (10.4 percent), Pittsburgh (10 percent), Chicago (9.1 percent), and San Francisco (8.8 percent).
The number of foreclosures took a dive in May, with 6.3 out of every 10,000 homes in the being foreclosed nationwide compared to 7.2 out of every 10,000 in April.

 By: Esther Cho

Good News for the Housing Market

The housing market’s been giving mixed signals, flashes of hope mixed with sudden bad news. There’s no sign yet that a real recovery has taken hold, but some new data are optimistic.

Home prices and sales are on the rise. DataQuick says the average sale price for the past 30 days was $189,500, up $7,000 from a month earlier. Sales are also up 8.2 percent during this time. In Southern California, for example, DataQuick says the market is continuing its “step-by-tiny-step trek back toward normalcy.”

Shadow inventory is shrinking quickly. The so-called shadow inventory refers to distressed properties that aren’t listed for sale but probably will be—homes on which borrowers are grossly delinquent or already in foreclosure, or that banks have already repossessed. CoreLogic says in April, 1.5 million homes were in the shadows, which equates to a four-month supply, down from a six-month supply a year earlier. A smaller shadow inventory can be positive for prices because it means there are fewer distressed homes poised to come on the market.

Foreclosures are up. In the fall of 2010, the robo-signing scandal erupted over how banks were using faulty paperwork to evict borrowers. They cut back on processing foreclosures, building up a backlog of distressed properties. In March, banks agreed to a $25 billion robo-signing settlement, and new data show banks are restarting the foreclosure machinery. In May, banks filed to foreclose on 205,990 properties—a 9 percent increase during April, according to RealtyTrac. The foreclosure pickup hurts the people who are losing their homes but helps the housing market in the long run because it lets banks get through the backlog and eventually move on.

Borrowers are building more equity in their homes. Our colleagues at Bloomberg News report that homeowners have made the biggest jump in home equity in more than 60 years. Half of borrowers who are refinancing are paying down some of their debt and reducing their loans. They’re also refinancing into shorter-term loans that have higher monthly payments but let them pay down principal quicker. Overall, mortgage debt is down 7 percent since 2007—a small consolation for the decline in home values, which are down 23 percent over the same period.
Finally, if you’re looking for more data and a big-picture view, check out Harvard’s annual State of the Nation’s Housing report that’s out today. It also sees signs of recovery in the market and says unless something comes along to dent the broad economy, the housing picture should become even brighter.

Weise is a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek.

Americans Sees Biggest Home Equity Jump in 60 Years: Mortgages

Americans are digging themselves out of mortgage debt. 

Home equity in the first quarter rose to $6.7 trillion, the highest level since 2008, as homeowners taking advantage of record-low borrowing costs to refinance their loans brought cash to the table to pay down principal. The 7.3 percent gain was the biggest jump in more than 60 years, according to an analysis by Bloomberg of Federal Reserve data. 

t’s the strongest sign yet that Americans’ home-loan debt burden is beginning to ease after the record borrowing that created, and ultimately popped, the housing bubble, leaving almost a quarter of homeowners with mortgages owing more than their properties were worth, said Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group LLC in Boston. Half the mortgages refinanced in the fourth quarter reduced loan size, a record, according to Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage buyer. 

“The willingness of homeowners to carry housing debt has been radically altered,” said DeKaser, former chairman of the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee. “When the market was booming, a mortgage was used as a leveraging tool, and now it’s seen as a risk.”

Measured as a share, rather than in dollars, homeowner equity was 41 percent of U.S. residential property value in the first quarter, including homeowners who don’t have mortgages, according to the Fed study released last week. The last time the share was that high was in the third quarter of 2008 when it was 43 percent.

‘Bubble Burst’

“People got too overleveraged in the boom years, and that left them with too much debt when the bubble burst,” said Paul Miller, a managing director with FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia. “Now, they’re trying to put themselves back on solid ground.”

Residential mortgage debt peaked in 2007 at $10.6 trillion, doubling in six years, according to Fed data. Since then, it has fallen 7 percent as the value of all residential property has dropped 23 percent.

Americans aren’t just bringing money to the table when they refinance their mortgages. Many also are choosing to shorten the term of their loans, which increases monthly payments. The average mortgage term fell to 27 years in March and April from 29 years February. Almost all U.S. mortgages have either 30-year or 15-year terms. When the average falls, it shows more people are choosing the shorter period.

The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has tumbled since early 2011 to 3.71 percent this week, rising from last week’s record-low 3.67 percent. Refinancing applications, meanwhile, are at a three-year high.

Lackluster Recovery

DeKaser of Parthenon attributes the reduction in mortgage debt to a “fear factor.” A lackluster recovery that still has one of every 15 people unemployed has persuaded some borrowers of the wisdom of thriftiness, he said.

“People are worried about falling home prices and they’re worried about the economy,” said DeKaser. “If they can afford it, they’re paying down their mortgages instead of buying things because it makes them feel like they’ll sleep better at night.”

Home prices tumbled for six straight months through March to the lowest level in a decade, 35 percent below the peak prices of the housing boom, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas. A 3.4 percent increase in home sales last month may signal prices are beginning to stabilize, according to Eric Belsky, managing director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, in its “State of the Nation’s Housing” report issued today.

Economic Growth

The U.S. economy probably will grow at a 2.2 percent pace in 2012, the third year after the end of the recession, according to the median forecast of 93 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with a 3.9 percent average expansion rate in the third-year period following the 1982, 1994, and 2001 recessions. In 2013, the growth rate probably will be 2.4 percent, according to the economists’ average estimate.

Homeowners who are able to shorten the terms of their loans or reduce their balances when they refinance are the lucky ones, said Chris Christopher, a senior economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

“Homeowners who are paying down mortgage debt are the survivors,” said Christopher. “They probably didn’t lose their jobs, so they’re in a better position to do that.”

About 23 percent of mortgage holders are underwater on their loans, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth, according to CoreLogic Inc., a mortgage data and software firm in Santa Ana, California. About 2.1 million properties were in foreclosure in April, according to Lender Processing Services, a mortgage data firm in Jacksonville, Florida.

‘Bubble Days’

“Consumers’ view of the housing market clearly has been radically changed since the bubble days,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc in New York. “We saw what happened to people who were way overleveraged.”

“Paying down mortgage debt is bad for economic growth -- putting your money into your house usually means you’re spending less,” said FBR’s Miller. “It’s good for our economic health in the long run, though, because it improves household balance sheets.”

Retail sales in the U.S. fell in May for a second month, prompting economists to cut forecasts for economic growth as limited job growth and income gains hold back consumers. The 0.2 percent decrease matched April’s drop that was previously reported as a gain, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday in Washington.

National Income

Annual increases in national income slowed to $581 billion in 2011 from $693 billion in the prior year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first quarter’s $127.7 billion gain puts 2012 on course for a $510.8 billion increase, the lowest since income dropped in 2009.

“People are looking around them and seeing people they know getting their salaries cut or losing their jobs,” said Miller, a former examiner with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. “If you want security, you can put your money in a savings bank for half a percentage point, or you can pay down your mortgage.”

FBR’s Miller said when he refinanced his home loan last year, he “brought a big check to the table” to reduce his mortgage balance. The reason?

“So my wife would leave me alone,” said Miller. “Just like a lot of people, she wants to have no mortgage debt.”

To contact the reporter on this column: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rob Urban at robprag@bloomberg.net

U.S. Housing Market Finally Reaches a Turning Point

RISMEDIA, Saturday, June 02, 2012— Home valuations will start to climb again while adjacent consumer industries will capture significant new growth opportunities in 2012 and beyond as the U.S. housing market finally turns the corner, concludes a major new study released today by The Demand Institute. The recovery of the housing market will have far-reaching impacts in the coming years across the United States and international markets as U.S. consumers increase their spending on buying, renovating, furnishing and maintaining their homes.

Launched in February 2012 and jointly operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen, The Demand Institute is a non-profit, non-advocacy organization with a mission to illuminate where consumer demand is headed around the world.
The new report, The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, predicts that average home prices will increase by up to 1 percent in the second half of 2012. By 2014, home prices will increase by as much as 2.5 percent. From 2015 to 2017, the study projects annual increases between 3 and 4 percent. This recovery will not be uniform across the country, and the strongest markets could capture average gains of 5 percent or more in the coming years.

"In these initial years, the prime driver of recovery won't be new home construction, but rather demand for rental properties," said Louise Keely, Chief Research Officer at The Demand Institute and a co-author of the report. "This is a remarkable change from previous recoveries. It is a measure of just how severe the Great Recession has been that such a wide swath of Americans had to delay, scale back, or put off entirely their dreams of home ownership."

"In the long-term, we don't expect home ownership rates to change," said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board and co-author of the report. "Over 80 percent of Americans in recent surveys still agree that buying a home is the best long-term investment they can make. What will be intriguing to watch is how their aspirations around home ownership are affected by this period of extended austerity."

Between 2006 and 2011, some $7 trillion in American wealth was wiped out when home prices dropped 30 percent after dramatic climb in valuations during the housing bubble. Looking forward, the moderate growth expectations for coming years suggest a return to normalcy. As home prices continue to drop and interest rates fall further, first-time buyers and others who remained relatively cautious will be drawn back into the housing market. And, as the market recovers, so too will consumer spending. 

"As the U.S. housing market strengthens, almost every consumer-facing industry will be impacted in the coming years," said Mark Leiter, Chairman of The Demand Institute. "Business and government leaders will benefit by fully understanding the nature of this recovery. In doing so they will be better able to anticipate how consumer demand will evolve, and to formulate critical business and policy decisions to lead their organizations."

Key Findings in the Report 
In addition to the projected gains in home prices, the report discusses in detail the dynamics at work in the U.S. Housing market and the impacts across industries. What follows are highlights from the report:

• The recovery will be led by demand from buyers for rental properties, rather than, as in previous cycles, demand from buyers acquiring new or existing properties for themselves. More than 50 percent of those planning to move in the next two years say they intend to rent. 
• Young people—who were particularly hard hit by the recession—and immigrants will lead the demand for rental properties. Developers and investors will fulfill it, developers by building multifamily homes for rent (that is, buildings containing two or more units, such as apartment blocks or townhouses), and investors by buying foreclosed single-family properties for the same purpose. 
• Rental demand will help to clear the huge oversupply of existing homes for sale. In 2011, some 14 percent of all housing units were vacant, while almost 13 percent of mortgages were in foreclosure or delinquent—increases of 12 and 129 percent respectively over 2005 levels. It will take two to three years for this oversupply to be cleared, and at that point home ownership rates will rise and return to historical levels. 
• The housing market recovery will not be uniform across the country. Some states will see annual price gains of 5 percent or more. Others will not recover for many years. The deciding factors will include the level of foreclosed inventory and rates of unemployment. 
• There will also be vast differences within states. Here, additional factors count, such as whether local amenities, including access to public transport, are within walking distance of homes. By examining seven factors that influence house prices at a local level, the report identifies four categories of cities and towns in which prices will behave differently. 
• The average size of the American home will shrink. Many baby boomers who delayed retirement for financial reasons during the recession will downsize. They will not be alone. The majority of Americans have seen little or no wage increase for several years, and many will scale back their housing aspirations. The size of an average new home is expected to continue to fall, reaching mid-1990s levels by 2015. 
• Consumer industries including financial services, home furnishings, home remodeling will all experience shifts in demand and new growth opportunities. Part of this spending is linked to increases in wealth from improving home valuations, while an even bigger part is tied to the "transaction" of buying or selling the home which sets in motion increased demand for a wide range of products and services. 
• Despite the number of Americans who have been hurt financially by the housing crash, the desire to own a home remains strong. We do not expect to see a long-term drop in ownership rates. Indeed, one survey has revealed that more than 80 percent of Americans recently thought buying a home remained the best long-term investment they could make.

The new report, The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, can be downloaded at The Demand Institute's website: www.demandinstitute.org.