Case-Shiller Home Prices Take Off

The Mortgage Corner

 Case-Shiller Home Prices Take Off

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index shows home prices are in full recovery mode.  Over the last 12 months, prices rose 12.3 percent and 12.4 percent as measured by the 10- and 20-City Composites, which are a 3-month average of same-home increases. And because the Fed still in full credit easing mode with its September decision to maintain QE3 securities’ purchases at $85 billion per month, interest rates are beginning to decline

Graph-Calculated Risk

Data through July 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed increases of 1.9 percent and 1.8 percent from June for the 10- and 20-City Composites. For at least four months in a row, all 20 cities showed monthly gains. Phoenix posted 22 consecutive months of positive returns. Although home prices in all the cities increased, 15 cities and both Composites those increases slowed in July versus June.

“Home prices gains are holding their 12 percent annual rate of gain established by the two Composite indices in April,” says Chairman David M. Blitzer, of the S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The Southwest continues to lead the housing recovery. Las Vegas home prices are up 27.5 percent year-over-year; in California, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego are up 24.8, 20.8 and 20.4 percent, respectively. However, all remain far below their peak levels.”

The result of lower mortgage rates is mortgage applications are also increasing, after falling sharply in May when the Fed first hinted it would begin to tighten credit in the fall. Mortgage applications increased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 20, 2013.

The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier.  The Purchase Index was at its highest level since July 2013.

Graph-Calculated Risk

The HARP share of refinance applications increased to 41 percent from 40 percent the week before, and is the highest since MBA started tracking this measure in early 2012.  So there is the feeling that many home owners with negative home equity are only now taking advantage of refinancing their underwater mortgages at current interest rates.  The HARP program allows mortgage holders to refinance when debt can be as much as 150 percent of their home’s value.
            So the Federal Housing Finance Authority has stepped up its campaign to encourage more homebuyers to apply for HARP refinancing.  Acting FHFA Director Edward J. DeMarco said that 2.8 million homeowners have refinanced through HARP but with mortgage rates still historically low and HARP eligibility requirements expanded, other qualified homeowners could reduce their monthly mortgage payments or build their equity faster with a shorter term mortgage through the program.

DeMarco told Bloomberg News in an interview this weekend that FHFA used focus groups to find out why borrowers with high rates hadn't yet tried to refinance through HARP. They found many didn't realize they were eligible. They thought they had to be delinquent on their mortgages before the government would help them. DeMarco said he hoped the educational outreach would bring in an additional 2 million HARP borrowers.

This is while total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million in August from 5.39 million in July, and are 13.2 percent higher than the 4.84 million-unit level in August 2012, reported the National Association of Realtors.

           

Harlan Green © 2013

Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

New York, November 27, 2012 – Data through September 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that home prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2012. The national composite was up 3.6% in the third quarter of 2012 versus the third quarter of 2011, and was up 2.2% versus the second quarter of 2012. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites showed annual returns of +2.1% and +3.0%. Average home prices in the 10- and 20-City Composites were each up by 0.3% in September versus August 2012. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in September versus August 2012; Detroit and Washington D.C. recorded a slight deceleration in their annual rates, and New York saw no change.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.6% gain in the third quarter of 2012 over the third quarter of 2011. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 2.1% and 3.0%, respectively. 

“Home prices rose in the third quarter, marking the sixth consecutive month of increasing prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In September’s report all three headline composites and 17 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 13 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains.
“The National Composite increased by 3.6% from the same quarter in 2011 and by 2.2% from the second quarter of 2012. The 10- and 20-City Composites have posted positive annual returns for four consecutive months with a +2.1% and +3.0% annual change in September, respectively. Month-over-month, both Composites have recorded increases for six consecutive months, with the most recent monthly gain being +0.3% for each Composite.
“We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year. The headline figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed five cities with lower prices in September versus only one in August; in the seasonally adjusted data the pattern was reversed: one city fell in September versus two in August. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.
“Phoenix continues to lead the recovery with a +20.4% annual growth rate. Atlanta has finally reversed 26 months of annual declines with a +0.1% annual rate as observed in September’s housing data. At the other end of the spectrum, Chicago and New York were the only two cities to post annual declines of 1.5% and 2.3% respectively and were also down 0.6% and 0.1% month-over-month.

“Thirteen of the 20 cities recorded positive monthly returns; Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York saw modest drops in home prices in September as compared to August; Tampa and Washington D.C. were flat. With six months of consistently rising home prices, it is safe to say that we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market.”

The chart on the previous page shows the index levels for the U.S. National Home Price Index, as well as its annual returns. As of the third quarter of 2012, average home prices across the United States are back at their mid-2003 levels. At the end of the third quarter of 2012, the National Index was up 2.2% over the second quarter of 2012 and 3.6% above the third quarter of 2011. 

The chart above shows the index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of September 2012, average home prices across the United States for the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their autumn 2003 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the decline for both Composites is approximately 29% through September 2012. For both Composites, the September 2012 levels are approximately 9% above their recent lows seen in March 2012.

In September 2012, 13 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly gains. Home prices in Tampa and Washington DC saw no change from August to September. Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York saw a slight drop in prices in September. Phoenix recorded the highest increase in annual rate, up 20.4% from its September 2011 level. Chicago and New York were the only two cities that fared worse year-over-year with respective annual rates of -1.5% and -2.3%.

Atlanta, Detroit and Las Vegas remain the only three cities with average home prices below their January 2000 levels. Detroit with a 79.82 print, is nearly 20% below its January 2000 level.

The table below summarizes the results for September 2012. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 25 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com. 

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

National Home Prices are Surging

The Mortgage Corner

National Home Prices Are Surging

We are seeing further confirmation of the housing recovery. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported the fourth consecutive year-over-year (YoY) gain in their house price indexes since 2010 - and the increase back in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit. Excluding the tax credit, the previous YoY increase was back in 2006. The YoY increase in September suggests that house prices probably bottomed earlier this year.

And this is the slow time of year when families that have already moved and put their children in new school districts.  It really means that those at the bottom of the housing bubble—Las Vegas (up 1.4 percent, 3.8 percent YoY), Phoenix (up 1.1 percent, 20.4 percent YoY), San Diego (up 1.4 percent, 4.1 percent YoY)—are finally seeing some relief from the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.

Graph: Calculated Risk

“Home prices rose in the third quarter, marking the sixth consecutive month of increasing prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In September’s report all three headline composites and 17 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 13 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains.”

                The Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) house price index posted also another monthly increase in September. This measure is up 4.4 percent YOY, a bigger YOY gain than the 3 percent rise in the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Also, the FHFA index is down just 16 percent from its peak, about half the cumulative decline in the Case-Shiller gauge. Most of the discrepancy reflects the fact that the FHFA index is much less affected by distress sales, since it covers only properties financed with conventional GSE mortgages (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), which have more stringent qualification guidelines.

This may be because of the continuing rise in consumer confidence.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey rose again with buying plans for homes a special positive, said the report. The consumer confidence index rose to a new recovery high of 73.7 in November from an upwardly revised 73.1 in October. Strength is centered in the expectations component which is up 1.1 points to 85.1. The present situation component is down one tenth to 56.6.

                                                                                             Graph: Econoday

A major reason for the increased confidence is a 1.5 percentage point jump to 6.9 percent in those who expect to buy a house in the next six months. This is the latest indication of building momentum for the housing sector. Inflation expectations are another plus in the report, down two tenths for the 12-month outlook to 5.6 percent in what is a reflection of falling gas prices.

California is also doing well.  I reported last week that Southern California home sales also rose sharply in October as move-up buyers joined investors, according to San Diego-based DataQuick, shifting the mix of homes selling upward as foreclosure resales hit a five-year low. Southern California's real estate market bucked the typical fall slowdown last month, with buyers snapping up pricier homes and sales roaring up 18 percent over the prior month.

Sales hit a three-year high for an October, rising 25 percent from the same month last year. The median sale price for a Southland house last month was $315,000, equal to September and up 17 percent from October 2011.

Harlan Green © 2012