- April 17, 2012, 6:00 AM
By Nick Timiraos
Here’s a sign that sellers are feeling more optimistic about their prospects this spring: median asking prices in March jumped by 5.6% from a year ago, and were up 1% from February, according to a report released Tuesday.
The jump in median asking prices comes amid a sharp drop in the number of homes listed for sale from one year ago. While listing inventories in March rose by 1.5% from February, they were still 21.5% below last year’s levels.
Inventories of homes listed for sale tend to go up in the spring, and the 1.8 million listings in March represented the second straight increase for the year. Over the past 27 years, the average increase in for-sale listings in March has been 1.8% from February, according to research firm Zelman & Associates.
The Realtor.com figures include sale listings from more than 900 multiple-listing services across the country. They don’t cover all homes for sale, including those that are “for sale by owner” and newly constructed homes that aren’t always listed by the services.
Compared with February, inventories declined in roughly less than half of the top 30 metros tracked by Realtor.com during March, with the biggest declines in Phoenix (-6.4%), Seattle (-4.8%) and Orlando, Fla. (-4.2%).
Northeastern cities showed the largest inventory gains — a finding that shouldn’t surprise given that sellers are more likely to list their homes when the weather improves. Washington, D.C., saw a 9.5% gain, followed by Philadelphia (8.1%) and Boston (7.4%).
But compared with one year ago, inventories are still down sharply in almost all of the 145 markets tracked by Realtor.com. Just two, Philadelphia and Hartford, Conn., have seen any annual inventory increases. Listings are down by more than half in Oakland and Bakersfield, Calif.
Where are prices rising? Median asking prices were up from one year ago or unchanged in the vast majority of markets, with whopping increases of 23% in Phoenix, 22% in Miami, 17% in Washington, D.C.
The biggest monthly price gains were reported in San Francisco (6.1%), Seattle (5%) and Washington, D.C. (4.1%).
Where are prices falling? Chicago topped the list, with median asking prices down by 9.5% from last year’s levels. Orange County, Calif., saw a 5.4% decline and Los Angeles posted a 3% drop.
Compared with February, asking prices turned up in all but one of the cities, with Minneapolis posting a 2.2% drop in median listing prices from February.
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Showing posts with label WSJ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WSJ. Show all posts
Monday, April 23, 2012
Report: Sellers’ Asking Prices Rose in March
Friday, January 27, 2012
Sales Stir Hope for Housing Market
Sales of previously owned homes rose in December for the third straight month, bringing the supply of homes listed for sale to the lowest level since 2006 and offering a glimmer of hope that the housing market could be starting to climb out of a profound downturn.
Existing-home sales increased 5% in December from a month earlier, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, called the December gain "a good finish to a very tough year."
Existing-home sales increased 5% in December from a month earlier, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, called the December gain "a good finish to a very tough year."
Many economists had predicted that 2011 would be the worst year on record for existing home sales, but the year ended with 4.26 million sales, about 1.6% higher than the 4.19 million existing homes sold in 2010. Market-watchers attributed this to a minor surge in sales at year-end, driven by historically low mortgage rates, falling prices, active investor-buyers and increasing consumer confidence.
Still, economists cautioned that it's too early to assume that the market is recovering. "These were positive numbers, but that doesn't mean the market is getting better. Lenders have been trying to get rid of distressed homes, and investors been snapping them up," said Patrick Newport, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. According to the Realtors report, investors purchased 21% of all homes in December, up from 19% in November.
Still, economists cautioned that it's too early to assume that the market is recovering. "These were positive numbers, but that doesn't mean the market is getting better. Lenders have been trying to get rid of distressed homes, and investors been snapping them up," said Patrick Newport, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. According to the Realtors report, investors purchased 21% of all homes in December, up from 19% in November.
The inventory of homes for sale declined in December to 2.38 million, the equivalent of a 6.2-month supply, assuming the pace of sales remain at December's level. A six-month supply of homes typically is considered healthy, although NAR's numbers don't take into account the "shadow inventory" of homes that are either in foreclosure or on bank balance sheets and not yet listed for sale.
Prices, meanwhile, continue to fall. The median price in December was $164,500, down 2.5% from a year earlier. Prices were down in all regions except the West, where prices rose slightly, compared with a year ago. For all of 2011, the median was $166,100, the lowest since 2002.
"What you really want to see is sales going up, inventories going down, and prices going up, not down," said David Semmens, an economist with Standard Chartered. "People still feel they can hold off buying a house because the recovery won't be that aggressive. It's still very much a buyer's market."
That buyer's market allowed Andrew Gonzales, a 24-year-old police officer in Santa Fe, N.M., to be picky about price when looking for a home for himself and his three-year-old daughter. He closed last month on a $132,000, three-bedroom home in Rio Rancho, a suburb of Albuquerque, after the price was cut twice. Just before closing, the home was appraised for $18,000 higher than the sales price, at $150,000, by a private appraiser.
"I got tired of paying rent, and I'm a single father, so I wanted a home for my daughter," he said. "I was just waiting for the price to come down."
Vision Equity, a company that buys foreclosed homes at auctions in Indianapolis, stepped up the volume of its purchases this winter, buying about 45 homes a month in October, November and December, compared with about 30 homes a month last summer.
"There's a lot of cash investor activity right now," said Steve Olson, a spokesman for Vision Equity. "The chatter at the courthouse was, there's going to be a lot more product coming on the market, and the pricing is going to be good for investors. And we prepared our own investors for that."
Write to Robbie Whelan at Robbie.Whelan@wsj.com
Prices, meanwhile, continue to fall. The median price in December was $164,500, down 2.5% from a year earlier. Prices were down in all regions except the West, where prices rose slightly, compared with a year ago. For all of 2011, the median was $166,100, the lowest since 2002.
"What you really want to see is sales going up, inventories going down, and prices going up, not down," said David Semmens, an economist with Standard Chartered. "People still feel they can hold off buying a house because the recovery won't be that aggressive. It's still very much a buyer's market."
That buyer's market allowed Andrew Gonzales, a 24-year-old police officer in Santa Fe, N.M., to be picky about price when looking for a home for himself and his three-year-old daughter. He closed last month on a $132,000, three-bedroom home in Rio Rancho, a suburb of Albuquerque, after the price was cut twice. Just before closing, the home was appraised for $18,000 higher than the sales price, at $150,000, by a private appraiser.
"I got tired of paying rent, and I'm a single father, so I wanted a home for my daughter," he said. "I was just waiting for the price to come down."
Vision Equity, a company that buys foreclosed homes at auctions in Indianapolis, stepped up the volume of its purchases this winter, buying about 45 homes a month in October, November and December, compared with about 30 homes a month last summer.
"There's a lot of cash investor activity right now," said Steve Olson, a spokesman for Vision Equity. "The chatter at the courthouse was, there's going to be a lot more product coming on the market, and the pricing is going to be good for investors. And we prepared our own investors for that."
Write to Robbie Whelan at Robbie.Whelan@wsj.com
By ROBBIE WHELAN
Thursday, October 20, 2011
It's Time to Buy That House
U.S. house prices have plunged by nearly a third since 2006, and homeownership rates are falling at the fastest pace since the Great Depression.
The good news? Two key measures now suggest it's an excellent time to buy a house, either to live in for the long term or for investment income (but not for a quick flip). First, the nation's ratio of house prices to yearly rents is nearly restored to its prebubble average. Second, when mortgage rates are taken into consideration, houses are the most affordable they have been in decades.
Two of the silliest mantras during the real-estate bubble were that a house is the best investment you will ever make and that a renter "throws money down the drain." Whether buying is a better deal than renting isn't a stagnant fact but a changing condition that depends on the relationship between prices and rents, the cost of financing and other factors.
But the math is turning in buyers' favor. Stock-oriented folks can think of a house's price/rent ratio as akin to a stock's price/earnings ratio, in that it compares the cost of an asset with the money the asset is capable of generating. For investors, a lower ratio suggests more income for the price. For prospective homeowners, a lower ratio makes owning more attractive than renting, all else equal.
Nationwide, the ratio of home prices to yearly rents is 11.3, down from 18.5 at the peak of the bubble, according to Moody's Analytics. The average from 1989 to 2003 was about 10, so valuations aren't quite back to normal.
But for most home buyers, mortgage rates are a key determinant of their total costs. Rates are so low now that houses in many markets look like bargains, even if price/rent ratios aren't hitting new lows. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.12% this week from a record low of 3.94% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. (The rates assume 0.8% in prepaid interest, or "points.") The latest rate is still less than half the average since 1971.
As a result, house payments are more affordable than they have been in decades. The National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index hit 183.7 in August, near its record high in data going back to 1970. The index's historic average is roughly 120. A reading of 100 would mean that a median-income family with a 20% down payment can afford a mortgage on a median-price home. So today's buyers can afford handsome houses—but prudent ones might opt for moderate houses with skimpy payments.
For example, the median home in the greater Phoenix market, including houses, condos and co-ops, costs $121,700, according to Zillow.com. With a 20% down payment and a 4.12% mortgage rate, a buyer's monthly payment would be about $470. Rent for a comparable house would be more than $1,100 a month, according to data provided by Zillow.com.
Of course, all of this assumes mortgages are available—no given now that lending standards have tightened. But long-term data on down payments and credit scores suggest conditions are more normal than many buyers think, according to Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. "If you have good credit, a job and a down payment, you can get a mortgage," Mr. Humphries says. "There's more paperwork and scrutiny than five years ago, but things are pretty much like they were in the '80s and '90s."
Not all housing markets are bargains. Mr. Humphries says Zillow has developed a new price/rent ratio that uses estimates for each individual property rather than city medians, to better reflect the choices facing typical buyers. A fresh look at the numbers suggests Detroit and Miami are plenty cheap for buyers, with price/rent ratios of 5.6 and 7.7, respectively. New York and San Francisco are more expensive, with ratios of 17.6 and 17.2, respectively. The median ratio for 169 markets is 10.7.
For investors seeking income, one back-of-the-envelope way of seeing how these numbers stack up against yields for other assets is to divide 1 by the price/rent ratio, resulting in a rent "yield." The median market's rent yield is 9.3% and Detroit's is 17.9%.
Investors would then subtract for taxes, insurance, upkeep and other expenses—costs that vary widely. But suppose total costs were 4% of the purchase price. That would still leave a 5.3% rent yield in the typical market. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.2% and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index carrying a dividend yield of 2.1%, rents for residential housing in many markets look attractive.
A few caveats are in order. First, not all transactions are average ones. Even in low-priced markets, buyers should shop carefully. Second, prices could fall further. Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, expects prices to drop 3% before bottoming early next year and rising slowly thereafter. "If the economy slips back into recession, however, we could easily see a 10% drop," Ms. Chen says.
And property "flipping" can be dangerous even when prices are rising. That is because, absent a real-estate boom, house price gains simply aren't that exciting. Research by Yale economist Robert Shiller suggests houses more or less track the rate of inflation over long time periods. Houses aren't the magic wealth creators they were made out to be during the bubble. But when prices are low, loans are cheap and plump investment yields are scarce, buyers should jump.
—Jack Hough is a columnist at SmartMoney.com. Email: jack.hough@dowjones.com
The good news? Two key measures now suggest it's an excellent time to buy a house, either to live in for the long term or for investment income (but not for a quick flip). First, the nation's ratio of house prices to yearly rents is nearly restored to its prebubble average. Second, when mortgage rates are taken into consideration, houses are the most affordable they have been in decades.
Two of the silliest mantras during the real-estate bubble were that a house is the best investment you will ever make and that a renter "throws money down the drain." Whether buying is a better deal than renting isn't a stagnant fact but a changing condition that depends on the relationship between prices and rents, the cost of financing and other factors.
But the math is turning in buyers' favor. Stock-oriented folks can think of a house's price/rent ratio as akin to a stock's price/earnings ratio, in that it compares the cost of an asset with the money the asset is capable of generating. For investors, a lower ratio suggests more income for the price. For prospective homeowners, a lower ratio makes owning more attractive than renting, all else equal.
Nationwide, the ratio of home prices to yearly rents is 11.3, down from 18.5 at the peak of the bubble, according to Moody's Analytics. The average from 1989 to 2003 was about 10, so valuations aren't quite back to normal.
But for most home buyers, mortgage rates are a key determinant of their total costs. Rates are so low now that houses in many markets look like bargains, even if price/rent ratios aren't hitting new lows. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 4.12% this week from a record low of 3.94% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. (The rates assume 0.8% in prepaid interest, or "points.") The latest rate is still less than half the average since 1971.
As a result, house payments are more affordable than they have been in decades. The National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index hit 183.7 in August, near its record high in data going back to 1970. The index's historic average is roughly 120. A reading of 100 would mean that a median-income family with a 20% down payment can afford a mortgage on a median-price home. So today's buyers can afford handsome houses—but prudent ones might opt for moderate houses with skimpy payments.
For example, the median home in the greater Phoenix market, including houses, condos and co-ops, costs $121,700, according to Zillow.com. With a 20% down payment and a 4.12% mortgage rate, a buyer's monthly payment would be about $470. Rent for a comparable house would be more than $1,100 a month, according to data provided by Zillow.com.
Of course, all of this assumes mortgages are available—no given now that lending standards have tightened. But long-term data on down payments and credit scores suggest conditions are more normal than many buyers think, according to Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. "If you have good credit, a job and a down payment, you can get a mortgage," Mr. Humphries says. "There's more paperwork and scrutiny than five years ago, but things are pretty much like they were in the '80s and '90s."
Not all housing markets are bargains. Mr. Humphries says Zillow has developed a new price/rent ratio that uses estimates for each individual property rather than city medians, to better reflect the choices facing typical buyers. A fresh look at the numbers suggests Detroit and Miami are plenty cheap for buyers, with price/rent ratios of 5.6 and 7.7, respectively. New York and San Francisco are more expensive, with ratios of 17.6 and 17.2, respectively. The median ratio for 169 markets is 10.7.
For investors seeking income, one back-of-the-envelope way of seeing how these numbers stack up against yields for other assets is to divide 1 by the price/rent ratio, resulting in a rent "yield." The median market's rent yield is 9.3% and Detroit's is 17.9%.
Investors would then subtract for taxes, insurance, upkeep and other expenses—costs that vary widely. But suppose total costs were 4% of the purchase price. That would still leave a 5.3% rent yield in the typical market. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.2% and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index carrying a dividend yield of 2.1%, rents for residential housing in many markets look attractive.
A few caveats are in order. First, not all transactions are average ones. Even in low-priced markets, buyers should shop carefully. Second, prices could fall further. Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody's Analytics, expects prices to drop 3% before bottoming early next year and rising slowly thereafter. "If the economy slips back into recession, however, we could easily see a 10% drop," Ms. Chen says.
And property "flipping" can be dangerous even when prices are rising. That is because, absent a real-estate boom, house price gains simply aren't that exciting. Research by Yale economist Robert Shiller suggests houses more or less track the rate of inflation over long time periods. Houses aren't the magic wealth creators they were made out to be during the bubble. But when prices are low, loans are cheap and plump investment yields are scarce, buyers should jump.
—Jack Hough is a columnist at SmartMoney.com. Email: jack.hough@dowjones.com
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