Economic Growth Stronger Than Predictions

Popular Economics Weekly

Economic Growth Stronger Than Predictions

There are signs that economists have underestimated GDP growth this year.  The New York Times has surveyed economists in a recent Sunday front page article, that said growth could increase to 3 percent from the 2 percent norm of the past 3 years. “That is the surprising new view of a number of economists in academia and on Wall Street, who are now predicting something the United States has not experienced in years: healthier, more lasting growth,” said Nicholas D. Schwartz article.

And consumers are spending more.  May retail sales surprised on the upside and increased 0.6 percent on the month and were up 4.3 percent from a year ago. Retail sales excluding just autos and excluding both autos and gasoline were up 0.3 percent from April, much as expected. On the year, they were up 2.8 percent and 4.1 percent respectively.

Graph: Econoday

                This is reflected in consumer confidence numbers.  Consumer sentiment has been oscillating upward slowly since the mid-2011 plunge. Consumer spirits have been on a climb the last couple of months, but dipped back mid-June to 82.7 versus May's 84.5.

Graph: Econoday

The consumer's fundamental outlook for the economy is little changed with the expectations component rising nearly 1 point to 76.7 which is near a recovery high. In fact, the current conditions outlook is almost back to 2006 levels.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office also sees relatively fast growth of 3.4 percent next year, and 3.6 percent between 2015 and 2018. A few other private economists are even more bullish, according to the New York Times article. Jim Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase’s commercial bank, estimates the economy could expand by 4 percent in both 2014 and 2015. If that were to come to pass, it would be the strongest back-to-back annual growth since the late 1990s.

                There are many ingredients that could boost economic growth.  The U.S. could become a net exporter of oil and gas in the coming decades.  Health care costs are declining thanks to Obamacare, or the Affordable Care Act., according to many analysts.  And housing may now be leading the recovery, while household net worth has increased some $3 trillion in Q1 2013, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report.

Harlan Green © 2013

Pending Home Sales Soar as Well

The Mortgage Corner

Pending Home Sales Soaring As Well

Watch out, homebuyers! There may be few homes left on the market if the National Association of Realtors’ May Pending Home Sales Index is any predictor of future sales. This is even though mortgage rates have risen almost 1 percent in 3 weeks, as I said last week. 

The pending home sales index surged 6.7 percent in May to its highest level since 2006. This has to be because of those rising mortgage rates as prospective buyers want to act before rates could move even higher. The index posted double-digit percentage increases in the Midwest and West. The index level of 112.3 is the highest since the boom days of 2006. The year-on-year gain for the index is 12.1 percent, which is interestingly right in line with double-digit gains for many home-price readings.

Graph: Wrightson ICAP

To the extent that the surge reflected fence sitters jumping into action, there might be some payback in future months, says Wrightson ICAP. “Also, the big increase could partly reflect seasonal adjustment difficulties, as this is the third consecutive year of May gains in the 5-to-7 percent range. Nevertheless, this is a strong report, and it suggests that existing home sales could rise to around 5.5 million in June, which would be the strongest showing since 2007.” 

Another reason for the burst in pending home sales is the consumer sector made a comeback in May with income and spending improving. Personal income gained 0.5 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in April. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent increase. The wages & salaries component advanced 0.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase.

The latest inflation numbers contained in the PCE report confirm Fed officials concern that inflation is running too low. Year-on-year, PCE headline prices were up only 1.0 percent in May versus 0.7 percent in April, with the core was up just 1.1 percent. These numbers are well below the Fed's inflation target of 2.0 to 2.5 percent. And the savings rate increased to 3.5 percent, which means consumers are still holding on to much of their income, out of caution, no doubt.

Graph: Wrightson ICAP

It has to be why consumer confidence is in effect soaring. The Conference Board’s Director of Research Lynn Franco said why: “…Consumers are considerably more positive about current business and labor market conditions than they were at the beginning of the year. Expectations have also improved considerably over the past several months, suggesting that the pace of growth is unlikely to slow in the short-term, and may even moderately pick up.” 

Expectations are also at a recovery best, up nearly 9 points to 89.5 and reflecting rising confidence in the long-term outlook for the jobs market. The outlook for income is likewise climbing with more now seeing an increase ahead vs. those seeing a decrease. This is an important indication that hints at gains for consumer spending including discretionary spending.

There could be a housing hiccup if mortgage rates continue to climb. But we don’t believe they will. There is no inflation, and interest rates did soften a bit this week after several Fed Governors, such as new Fed Governor Jerome Powell indicated the markets had overreacted.

“The reaction of the forward and futures markets for short-term rates appears out of keeping with my assessment of the [Federal Open Market] Committee’s intentions, given its forecasts,” Mr. Powell said. “To the extent the market is pricing in an increase in the federal funds rate in 2014, that implies a stronger economic performance than is forecast either by most FOMC participants or by private forecasters.”

The economy isn’t growing fast enough to cause the Fed to begin downsizing it QE3 program, in other words, particularly with the huge downward revision just reported of first quarter GDP growth to 1.8 percent from 2.4 percent.

Harlan Green © 2013

Bad Mortgages Hit Lowest Level Since 2008

By Nick Timiraos

The number of U.S. mortgages that were behind on their payments or in foreclosure in March fell below the 5 million mark for the first time since 2008, according to a report released Tuesday.

The number of loans in the foreclosure process fell to just below 1.69 million in March, the lowest level in nearly four years, according to Lender Processing Services. That was down by almost 20% from one year ago. Overall, around 3.4% of all U.S. mortgages were in foreclosure at the end of March, down from 4.2% a year ago.

Foreclosures have been falling because fewer borrowers are falling behind on their payments and because banks have been more aggressive about modifying loans or approving short sales, where properties are sold before the bank completes foreclosure.

Another almost 3.31 million loans were behind on their payments in March, with around 1.47 million of those that had missed at least three payments. The level of delinquent loans was down by 3% from a year ago, with around 6.6% of all borrowers in some stage of delinquency, excluding those in foreclosure.

Delinquencies tend to fall in March because homeowners use year-end bonuses and tax refunds to help catch up on their mortgages.

Before the housing crisis, around 5% of borrowers were delinquent on their mortgages and another 1% of loans were in foreclosure. The latest data show that while delinquencies and foreclosures are moving in the right direction, it’s probably going to take a few more years before delinquencies and foreclosures get back to pre-crisis levels.

Fannie Economists Project 1.8M Borrowers Could Regain Equity in 2013

The broadening housing recovery has firmed up home prices around the country, with the potential to restore many underwater mortgages to a position of positive equity, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group.

Citing data from CoreLogic, Orawin Velz, Fannie Mae’s director of economic and strategic research, notes that 1.7 million properties moved from negative to positive equity last year. Provided the home price gains seen so far this year continue, Velz anticipates another 1.8 million properties will rise out of their underwater positions by the end of 2013.

In a new commentary piece entitled “Down But Not Out: Many Underwater Borrowers Will Likely Regain Buoyancy This Year,” Velz examines the extent to which home price appreciation can lift underwater properties into positive equity positions and the anticipated recovery time for transitioning the nation’s housing markets toward “normal” activity.

“The first annual rise in home prices on a national basis in six years has contributed to a positive feedback loop for the housing market by helping many underwater homeowners … regain their positive equity positions,” Velz said. “This improving trend should help spur mobility and housing turnover….The broader economy also should benefit.”

Main measures of home prices showed continued robust gains through the first part of 2013, thanks to an improving labor market, low mortgage rates, and very lean inventory—which Velz contends has been the principal driver of price gains so far.

She says rising home prices should help some homeowners who have involuntarily remained on the sidelines to put their homes on the market. According to CoreLogic’s data, the number of underwater residential properties peaked in the fourth quarter of 2011 at 12.1 million and declined in each quarter of 2012, with 10.4 million properties remaining in negative equity by year-end.

About 3.7 percent of those—or 1.8 million—were in a slightly negative position, which Velz defined as those with loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of 100 to less than 105 percent. She says these properties may switch to positive equity positions this year assuming home prices continue their upward trend. Based onCoreLogic’s latest negative equity report, the share of properties with a slightly negative equity position varied across the country, ranging from 1.3 percent in North Dakota to 5.4 percent in Georgia.

Velz concludes that all but about 10 percent of properties currently underwater will be back in positive territory within three and a half years. Most analysts expect home prices to trend up this year. Zillow polled more than 100 economists, housing analysts, and other industry experts in March. The consensus for median appreciation in 2013 was 4.8 percent, with only two respondents out of 117 indicating a decline.

Applying the Zillow survey’s consensus expectation for home prices—a cumulative gain of 17.5 percent between 2013 and 2016—and assuming continued amortization, Velz says most of the underwater properties at the end of 2012 would likely regain their positive equity positions by 2016—all except the most severely underwater, meaning those with LTVs of 120 percent or higher.

Underwater properties remain concentrated in a few states with those in the worst five states—Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan—accounting for nearly a third of total underwater properties, according to CoreLogic’s assessment. Velz stresses the speed of the transition of underwater loans to positive equity positions is expected to vary regionally.

Nevada and Arizona are among the states with the highest share of negative equity properties, yet these states witnessed very robust home price gains over the past year, Velz points out. On the other hand, Michigan’s negative equity share is the lowest among the five worst states, but its home price appreciation has been the most modest.

Fannie Mae’s economic and research director also noted strong home price appreciation bodes well for California, which was consistently among the five worst underwater states until the second quarter of 2011. Since then, California has moved out of the worst five states, as its home prices troughed in the first quarter of 2011—much sooner than trends have demonstrated in other severely underwater states and much earlier than national prices, which didn’t witness a trough until 2012.

According to Velz, that rate at which underwater borrowers are elevated above the break-even surface will depend on the severity of their underwater conditions—or their LTV ratios—and the pace of home price gains in specific markets.

BY: CARRIE BAY

New Rules of House Flipping

By Chris Taylor

NEW YORK | Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:51am EDT

(Reuters) - When the housing market went bust, house flippers went into hibernation. Now, as the recovery creeps along, bargain-hunters are once again looking for homes to fix up and resell for a quick profit.

Just take a look at the numbers. Home values are on the rise, with a year-over-year price increase of 11.6 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. Inventory has cratered to levels not seen since 2005.

Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties, says that flipping - defined as buying and selling a property within six months - rose for the second year in a row, up a slight 0.33 percent in 2012 after logging a 12 percent increase in 2011. Those deals were churning out real gross profits, at an average of $37,375 per transaction for all of 2012.

Today's flippers have learned some hard lessons. The housing crash of 2006-2011 wiped out more than $7 trillion in household wealth across the nation, according to data from the Federal Reserve. The fallout left countless speculators holding properties they could no longer move.

This time, homebuyers are being more selective - putting more money down and making calculated bets on smart renovations.

"There are fewer real estate investors now, compared to during the boom. But this time, they have really done their homework," says Andy Heller, author of "Buy Low, Rent Smart, Sell High: Real Estate Investing for the Long Run."

Here are a few tenets to hold close, as you tiptoe back into this dangerous game:

1. Pick your spots

The best places to flip in 2012 included Orlando, Florida; Richmond, Virginia; Tucson, Arizona; and Charlotte, North Carolina, according to RealtyTrac. Flipped homes in Orlando, for instance, were bought for an average of $100,397 and sold for an average of $174,895, for gross profits of almost $75,000.

Jon Maddux, a San Diego-based house flipper and founder of the site AfterForeclosure.com, also found luck in Atlanta, Georgia - far beyond his local region. The one-year average price increase their stands at 13.4 percent, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, 2 percent above the national average.

Last year, Maddux, 39, and a business partner bought two single-family homes. The first they bought for $62,900, put in about $28,000 of renovations, and sold for $139,000. The second house they purchased for $79,000, chipped in $25,000 to rehab, and sold for $149,000.

A caveat: Since home prices are not exactly secret information, it means if you find a promising area to invest, other flippers will likely be there, too.

2. Cash is king

During the housing boom, late-night infomercials blared about how anyone could flip a home without putting in a dime of their own.

But this time, banks have tight restrictions, and that means real estate investors coming in with all-cash deals have the upper hand. They can move faster and offer quicker closes than, say, first-time homebuyers who are constantly having to wrangle with their bank.

Even better, having cash on hand "can actually generate you some significant discounts on the deal," says Heller.

3. Renovations matter, but stick to a budget

In today's market, you will likely only get a bargain if the house is in truly rough condition. There is no shortage of homes that need upgrades, though. In 2012 there were 1.8 million properties in America with foreclosure filings, according to RealtyTrac, many of them in poor condition.

While every property is different, Maddux suggests spending up to around 25 percent of your expected sale price on necessary upgrades. Exceed that level, and the economics of your flip start to get riskier, with scant room for error if buyers do not show up.

The renovations that offer you the most money back upon resale, according to Remodeling Magazine's 2013 Cost vs. Value Report: Unsexy projects like window replacements, minor kitchen remodels and fixing garage doors.

Heller likes to focus on the basics - doing a fresh paint job, installing gleaming new floors, fixing any problems like leaks - and then providing an additional "improvement allowance," so the new buyer can tailor the home to their personal specifications.

With his latest project in Marietta, Georgia, he bought a single-family home for $205,000. Heller put in $17,000 worth of upgrades, most of it for a paint job and new flooring. He got an offer within a few weeks for $270,000.

4. Be prepared to hold

Back in 2003 the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) instituted anti-flipping regulations, prohibiting insuring a mortgage on a property owned by the seller for less than 90 days.

Those rules have been waived since 2010, in a bid to support the housing market. But a quickly-flipped home requires documentation on renovations, as well as additional appraisals, to justify a much higher resale price if the deal involves an FHA-insured loan. And in practice, many skittishbanks still adhere to the 90-day rule, says Maddux. That is why the average flipping time from purchase to resale is just over that level, at 106 days, according to RealtyTrac.

"That seems to be the sweet spot for a profitable deal," says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. "Back in the housing bubble, many flippers were solely relying on price appreciation, sitting back and selling for big profits within a month or two." Now, real improvements are needed, he says.

Do not expect to flip the property within days and realize lightning-quick profits. You may want to rent it out for a while as the housing market continues to recover, says Heller, in order to cover some costs and eventually secure an even higher resale price.

"In some ways, this is a dream environment," Heller says. "You would be crazy to be on the sidelines."

(Follow us @ReutersMoney or here. Editing by Beth Pinsker, Lauren Young and Chris Reese)

MONEY

Pending Home Sales Tick Upward in March

Contracts to buy existing homes rose slightly in March, as a historically low supply of for-sale listings nationwide continues to plague the housing market. The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors increased 1.5 percent month to month. It is 7 percent higher than March 2012.

These numbers represent signed contracts, not closings, and are therefore an indicator of future final sales.

"Contract activity has been in a narrow range in recent months, not from a pause in demand but because of limited supply," said Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun in a release. "Little movement is expected in the near-term sales closings, but they should edge up modestly as the year progresses.

Listings were down 17 percent in March from a year earlier, according to the association, with several factors affecting inventories. Millions of Americans still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, and that makes it impossible for them to move without incurring major expense.

Others are watching home prices rise and may be waiting to see just how high they go before listing their homes.

Meanwhile, home builders, while trying to ramp up production, are faced with a lack of land, labor and materials. Single-family starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 619,000 units, an improvement from the worst of the crash but far below historical norms.

Regionally, the pending home sales index was unchanged in the Northeast from February, up 0.3 percent in the Midwest, up 2.7 percent in the South and up 1.5 percent in the West.

Existing home sales in March, based on closings, fell just under one percent in March. While higher than a year ago, home sales appear to have leveled off, despite this being the normally busy spring season.

—By CNBC's Diana Olick

California Foreclosures Plunging, Sales Rising

The Mortgage Corner

California Foreclosures Plunging, Sales Rising

 The number of California homeowners entering the foreclosure process plunged to the lowest level in more than seven years last quarter, reports DataQuick. The unusually sharp drop in the number of mortgage default notices filed by lenders stems mainly from rising home values, a strengthening economy and government efforts to reduce foreclosures, says DQ.

No wonder, as the median price paid for a California home last quarter was $297,000, up 22.7 percent from a year ago, reports DataQuick.  During first-quarter 2013 lenders recorded 18,567 Notices of Default (NoDs) on California houses and condos. That was down 51.4 percent from 38,212 during the prior three months, and down 67.0 percent from 56,258 in first-quarter 2012

Graph: Econoday

Most of the loans going into default are still from the 2005-2007 period, per DQ. The median origination quarter for defaulted loans is still third-quarter 2006. That has been the case for more than three years, indicating that weak underwriting standards peaked then. The most active creditors in the formal foreclosure process last quarter were Wells Fargo (5,546), JP Morgan Chase (3,863) and Bank of America (2,565).

And Calculated Risk’s Bill McBride has become very sanguine about real estate’s role in boosting economic growth. He maintains that new-home sales will pick up due to unfilled demand, due to the big jump in household formation—to 1.3 million new households last year and the prediction this level will be maintained over the next decade. He sees the so-called existing-to-new home sales ratio trending back down to its historical average of 6 to 1 from its current heightened ratio, in this very interesting graph. It was the “flood’ of depressed sales from foreclosures that depressed new home sales because of the plunge in housing prices brought on by the foreclosures.              

Graph: Econoday

“According to the Census Bureau, there were 104 thousand new homes sold in Q1 2013, up about 19.5 percent from the 87 thousand sold in Q1 2012. That is a solid increase in sales, and this was the highest sales for Q1 since 2008,” said McBride.

“Although there has been a large increase in the sales rate, sales are still near the lows for previous recessions. This suggests significant upside over the next few years.  Based on estimates of household formation and demographics, I expect sales to increase to 750 to 800 thousand over the next several years. Also housing is historically the best leading indicator for the economy, and this is one of the reasons I think The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.”

                                           Harlan Green © 2013