Zillow: Home Values See Highest Monthly Increase Since 2006

By: Tory Barringer

Zillow issued a released Friday reporting that both national home values and rents rose in the month of April.





According to the April Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, national home values rose 0.7 percent in April to a Zillow Home Value Index of $147,300. This is the largest monthly increase in home values since January 2006, and it makes April the second month in a row in which home values climbed up.

Zillow also reported that rents rose from March to April, increasing by 1.6 percent, according to the Zillow Rent Index. Of the 178 markets covered by Zillow, 78 percent experienced a rise in rents.
The Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Phoenix metro areas saw the biggest increases in home values, rising 1.6 and 1.9 percent, respectively. Values continued to decrease in hard-hit markets like Atlanta, where home values fell 0.7 percent.

“The housing market continues to show positive signs, with home values increasing significantly in April,” said Dr. Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. “The recovery is moving in the right direction, but we caution that negative equity will cast a long shadow over the housing market. With almost one-third of homeowners with mortgages underwater and unable to sell their homes, inventory is having a hard time keeping up with increasing demand in many areas. We’ll continue to watch this signal as increasing home values turn from a blip into a trend.”
Foreclosures also continued to decline in April, with 6.8 out of every 10,000 homes being foreclosed across the U.S. That figure was down from 8 out of every 10,000 in March.

 

Foreclosures Down to 69,000 in March, Inventory Also Down

BY: ESTHER CHO

Year-over-year, the number of completed foreclosures decreased about 19 percent to 69,000 in March 2012 compared to 85,000 in March 2011, according to CoreLogic’s National Foreclosure Report for March. Month-over-month, with the number of completed foreclosures in February 2012 at 66,000, foreclosures increased about 4.5 percent in March 2012.

On a quarterly basis, foreclosures decreased to 198,000 in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 232,000 through the same quarter a year ago.

Overall, since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.5 million completed foreclosures.

In addition to the yearly and quarterly decreases in completed foreclosures, the number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by nearly 6 percent, or 100,000, in March 2012 compared to the year before.

“Since the foreclosure inventory is also coming down, this suggests that loan modifications, short sales, deeds-in-lieu are increasingly being used as an alternative to foreclosures to clear distressed assets in our communities. This is what was envisioned with the recent National Foreclosure Settlement, and can often be a better outcome for both borrowers and investors,” said Anand Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic.

Out of all homes with a mortgage, approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4 percent were in the national foreclosure inventory as of March 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5 percent, the same month a year ago, and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in the prior month of February.

Delinquencies are also down, with the share of borrowers nationally that were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payment, including homes in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) assets, dropping to 7 percent in March 2012 from 7.5 percent a year ago, and remained unchanged compared to the prior month.

“The overall delinquency level was unchanged in March, remaining at its lowest point since July 2009,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.

The distressed clearing ratio for March was up at 0.81 compared to 0.76 in February 2012. A higher ratio indicates a faster pace of REO sales relative to the pace of completed foreclosures.

As for individual states, strides were more notably made with non-judicial states.

“Non-judicial foreclosure markets like Nevada, Arizona, and California are experiencing significant improvements in their shares of delinquent borrowers. Some judicial foreclosure states are also improving, like Florida, but not to the extent of non-judicial markets,” said Fleming.

Year-over-year, the percentage of 90-plus delinquencies in Nevada decreased 3.7, while in Arizona the drop was 3.2 percent and in California 2.2 percent. Judicial state Florida saw a 1 percent decrease in its percentage of delinquent borrowers.

Highest % of Foreclosure Inventory

1. Florida (12.1 percent)
2. New Jersey (6.6 percent)
3. Illinois (5.4 percent)
4. Nevada (4.9 percent)
5. New York (4.9 percent)

Lowest % of Foreclosure Inventory

1. Wyoming (0.7 percent)
2. Alaska (0.8 percent)
3. North Dakota (0.8 percent)
4. Nebraska (1.1 percent)
5. South Dakota (1.4 percent)

Five States with the Most Foreclosures
(Over 12 months ending in March 2012)

1. California (150,000)
2. Florida (92,000)
3. Michigan (62,000)
4. Arizona (58,000)
5. Texas (57,000)

The five states account for 49.1 percent of all completed foreclosures nationally.

CoreLogic is a provider of consumer, financial and property information, analytics, and services to businesses and the government.

Buying a Home Won't Get Much Cheaper

By Les Christie

Buying a home may never get any cheaper than this. Several housing experts are predicting that this year will be the last chance for bargain hunters to cash in on the best deals of the weak housing market.

With home prices down 34% nationally since 2006 and mortgage rates at historic lows, homes have never been more affordable -- but it won't stay this way for much longer.

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services, said he expects home prices to flatten out by the third quarter and start climbing by next year.

A number of factors will help bolster the housing market, he said, including a decline in the number of foreclosures and continued job growth. In addition, homebuyers will have better access to mortgages as they get their finances in order and improve their credit scores.

"This is a strong indicator that we will start seeing home price indexes, like the S&P/Case-Shiller, start to report home price increases this summer," he said.

Prospective homebuyers who've been sitting on the fence shouldn't worry if they aren't quite ready to make the leap. Analysts are predicting that the initial price gains will be modest, at least, in most markets.

Read more at CNNMoney.

Low-ball offers decline in some housing markets

Realty agents say low-ball offers on homes for sale, typically those that are 25% or more below list price, are disappearing in high-demand markets.

By Kenneth R. Harney

April 22, 2012

WASHINGTON — It's not something that economists routinely track, but it provides a rough sense of what's happening in local real estate markets. Call it the low-ball index.

A year ago, according to researchers at the National Assn. of Realtors, 1 out of 10 members surveyed in a monthly poll complained about low-ball offers on houses listed for sale. In the latest survey — conducted during March among a sample of 4,500 agents and brokers across the country and not yet released — there were hardly any. Instead, the focus of volunteered comments has shifted to declining inventory levels — fewer houses available to sell — and multiple offers on well-priced listings.

A low-ball offer typically involves a contract submitted to a seller where the price proposed by the purchaser is 25% or more below list. Low-ball offers increase sharply when there's a glut of properties available, asking prices are out of sync with local economic realities and values are depressed or uncertain. Buyers figure: Hey, why not? Maybe I'll get lucky.

Based on the latest survey results, that sort of strategy is not a winning move in many communities this spring. In fact, in local markets where inventories are tight and competition for homes rising, realty agents say that buyers looking to steal houses by low-balling their offers are ending up at the back of the line — their contracts either rejected out of hand or countered close to the original asking price.

In high-demand, high-cost markets that have rebounded from recession slumps, sellers are now firmly in control; they pay scant attention to low-ball offers. Jayne Esposito, an agent with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Los Gatos, Calif., said multiple offers are "the rule, not the exception," in her area, and many transactions end up with final contract prices higher than the listing.

"Sure, I've had a few buyers try to low-ball and they wouldn't listen," she said, "but that didn't work out well for them."

Similar trends are underway in more moderately priced markets. Wes Neal, an agent at Prudential Olympia in Olympia, Wash., said, "Low-ball offers are down a lot because we're seeing more homes come on the market that are more realistically priced" — sellers have absorbed the hard lessons of the recession years about what the market can bear.

Even when buyers submit shockingly low bids, sellers no longer are so insulted that they send the contract back without a counteroffer. Now they negotiate aggressively and the final number ends up close to the original asking price. For example, Neal said, a buyer recently came in with a bottom-fishing offer of $150,000 on a house listed for $250,000. 

 Although the seller was irritated, after a series of negotiations the low-ball buyer settled for a final price of $230,000.

OutsideWashington, D.C., in the Northern Virginia suburbs, well-priced houses in good locations move fast, sometimes pulling in multiple offers within 48 hours of listing, said Chris Ann Cleland, an agent with Long & Foster Realtors. Sellers who encounter the occasional outrageous low-ball offer reminiscent of the recession years tell listing agents "don't even bother" with them. After all, there's an excellent chance there will be a realistic offer shortly — maybe more than one.

In the suburbs south of Chicago, Judy Orr, an agent with Classic Realty Group in Orland Park, Ill., said low-ball frequency and efficacy depend on the specific neighborhood or town. "We still see them, and we try to work with them" in communities where prices are soft and the effects of tough economic times persist, she said.

Elsewhere, although low-ball offers are down, Orr urges sellers to stick with it and negotiate. Recently a low-baller came in $40,000 below the asking price. Through negotiations with the buyer, Orr managed to close the gap to just $2,000 below asking.

Marnie Matarese, an agent with J Wood Realty in Sarasota, Fla., said that while low-ball offers are far fewer this spring, some out-of-town buyers still appear to be under the impression that all Florida real estate remains depressed. They insist on submitting offers that make no sense in today's environment. But Matarese has no problem with this — "you can't blame a buyer for trying to get a good deal," she said, but the fact remains: They usually risk losing the house.

The take-away here: Rolling low-balls at sellers may have been an effective approach between 2008 and early 2011. But in 2012's environment — at least in rebounding markets — it could be counterproductive if you truly want to buy.

kenharney@earthlink.net

Distributed by Washington Post Writers Group.

 

 

Report: Sellers’ Asking Prices Rose in March

• April 17, 2012, 6:00 AM

• By Nick Timiraos

  Here’s a sign that sellers are feeling more optimistic about their prospects this spring: median asking prices in March jumped by 5.6% from a year ago, and were up 1% from February, according to a report released Tuesday.
  
  The jump in median asking prices comes amid a sharp drop in the number of homes listed for sale from one year ago. While listing inventories in March rose by 1.5% from February, they were still 21.5% below last year’s levels.
  
  

  

  Click for interactive with metro-level data.

   

  Inventories of homes listed for sale tend to go up in the spring, and the 1.8 million listings in March represented the second straight increase for the year. Over the past 27 years, the average increase in for-sale listings in March has been 1.8% from February, according to research firm Zelman & Associates.
  
  The Realtor.com figures include sale listings from more than 900 multiple-listing services across the country. They don’t cover all homes for sale, including those that are “for sale by owner” and newly constructed homes that aren’t always listed by the services.
  Compared with February, inventories declined in roughly less than half of the top 30 metros tracked by Realtor.com during March, with the biggest declines in Phoenix (-6.4%), Seattle (-4.8%) and Orlando, Fla. (-4.2%).
  
  Northeastern cities showed the largest inventory gains — a finding that shouldn’t surprise given that sellers are more likely to list their homes when the weather improves. Washington, D.C., saw a 9.5% gain, followed by Philadelphia (8.1%) and Boston (7.4%).
  
  But compared with one year ago, inventories are still down sharply in almost all of the 145 markets tracked by Realtor.com. Just two, Philadelphia and Hartford, Conn., have seen any annual inventory increases. Listings are down by more than half in Oakland and Bakersfield, Calif.
  
  Where are prices rising? Median asking prices were up from one year ago or unchanged in the vast majority of markets, with whopping increases of 23% in Phoenix, 22% in Miami, 17% in Washington, D.C.
  
  The biggest monthly price gains were reported in San Francisco (6.1%), Seattle (5%) and Washington, D.C. (4.1%).
  
  Where are prices falling? Chicago topped the list, with median asking prices down by 9.5% from last year’s levels. Orange County, Calif., saw a 5.4% decline and Los Angeles posted a 3% drop.
  
  Compared with February, asking prices turned up in all but one of the cities, with Minneapolis posting a 2.2% drop in median listing prices from February.
  
  Follow Nick @NickTimiraos
  
   

California Home Prices Going Up, Inventory Down, C.A.R. Reports

By: Esther Cho

After 16 months of year-over-year declines, median home prices in California posted a gain, according to the California Association of Realtors.).

The median price of a single-family home for March 2012 was $291,080, a 1.6 percent increase compared to a revised $286,550 for March 2011, and a 9.2 percent increase compared to February’s median price of $266,660. The month-over-month increase was the largest since March 2004.
When breaking up prices by specific regions, the San Francisco Bay area was an exception, seeing a year-over-year decrease of 1.6 percent, but a 9.1 percent month-over-month increase.
“In areas, such as Los Angeles and Riverside counties, where the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) wants to implement the REO bulk sale pilot program, inventory is running at levels well below the long-run average,” said C.A.R.

VP and chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “These low inventory levels demonstrate that the pilot program is not necessary in California.”
The pilot program involves the sale of government-owned REOs in bulk to institutional investors who will convert them into rental properties. According to C.A.R., in California, the program would call for the sale of more than 600 Fannie Mae-owned foreclosed homes in Los Angeles and Riverside counties.
Recently, 19 California congressmen sent a letter to Edward DeMarco, acting director of FHFA, asking him to make California an exception to the program.
C.A.R. reported that California’s housing inventory declined, with the Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family homes down to 4.1 months in March, compared to a revised 5.4 months in February and a 5.4 month supply in March 2011.
Los Angeles county had a 4.3 month supply, and Riverside county had an even lower number, with 3.8 months of inventory.
San Mateo and Santa Clara counties had notably low inventories as well, at 2.4 and 2.5 months, respectively.
Not only is California’s housing inventory down, but according to C.A.R., it takes less days to sell a home there, with the time it took to sell a single-family home dropping to 53.1 days in March 2012, compared to 58.9 days in February and 57 days for March 2011.

Home prices close to bottoming, to rise in 2013

By Lucia Mutikani | Reuters – Thu, Apr 12, 2012

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The relentless decline in home prices is nearing an end and prices should rise for the first time in seven years in 2013, but a possible new wave of foreclosures could threaten the recovery, according a Reuters poll of economists.

The median forecast of 24 economists polled by Reuters was for the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to end the year unchanged. That was the same finding back in January for this house price gauge, which covers 20 cities.

"We are expecting a gradual improvement, but if we get a big wave of new foreclosures coming to the market, price declines could be even greater," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

The survey forecast the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rising 2.0 percent next year, up from 1.5 percent in the January survey.

The housing market's collapse pushed the economy into its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s. Historically, housing has led the economy out of recession, but it has been the weakest link in the recovery that started in mid-2009.

While residential construction accounts for a mere 2.3 percent of gross domestic product, home prices have an oversized reach in the economy, influencing a wide range of consumption decisions by households.

House prices have so far fallen about 32 percent from their peak at the end of 2005, and an estimated 11 million Americans now owe more on their homes than they are worth.

A resulting tide of foreclosures has held back the housing market's recovery.

The survey predicted about 1.5 million foreclosed properties will come on to the market this year. While there is no comparison for this figure, most analysts believe the foreclosure wave has either peaked or is close to topping out.

Given that foreclosures and the accompanying fear of further price declines are the main obstacles to any housing market recovery, few analysts say that further purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve will help.

Fed officials meet on April 24 and 25 to debate whether further steps are needed to drive borrowing costs lower to spur stronger economic growth.
Mortgage rates are already near record lows and house affordability is the best in history.

"The problem with the housing market is not necessarily that mortgages are expensive," said Millan Mulraine, a senior macro Strategist at TD Securities in New York.

"It's more the expectation that prices may continue to fall and cause a lot of potential buyers to sit on the sidelines to wait for more attractive entry points. I don't think there is lot more mileage to be achieved from MBS purchases."

Further MBS purchases by the U.S. central bank, however, could help keep mortgage rates low as the economy's recovery gains momentum.

The survey forecast the 30-year mortgage rate averaging 4.00 percent in 2012, down from 4.15 percent in the January poll.

Although job growth slowed in March, the labor market is expected to continue strengthening this year.

That should help to lift home sales. Sales of previously owned homes are expected to register an annualized 4.70 million unit annual pace in both the second and third quarters of this year before topping at 4.80 million units in the fourth quarter.

That compares to a rate of 4.60 million units and 4.70 million units in the second and third quarter respectively in the January survey.

"This gradual healing is encouraging, but we must tread carefully as the housing market is still far from a robust recovery," Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; polling by Snehasish Das and Aakanksha Bhat; Editing by John Stonestreet)